File under Meet Yourself
Several months ago, in fact very near the beginning of this blog, i wrote about the 'entropy of endeavor' and the distribution of effort across the professional landscape.
But this concept relates to more than professions. And is more prevalent in our everyday lives than we think. There are a finite number of cheerleader positions, lead roles in the school play, state delegates, or vice presidents in your company. Despite the demonstration of excellence, the individual may be in a pool of other excellent individuals, thus not achieving success despite doing everything in his or her power. The small fish in a big pond paradigm reigns supreme. And this brings us to the concept of Incidence versus Prevalence.
On March 28th 1979, at a power plant in Dauphin County, Pennsylvania, a series of operator misunderstandings, mechanical failures, and procedural neglect resulted in a valve remaining open and releasing large amounts of cooling water. Now for most power generation facilities the loss of cooling water can have significant impact through operational delays and damaged equipment. But the loss of cooling water for this plant in particular resulted in a catastrophic and devastating partial nuclear meltdown. This was Three Mile Island Nuclear power plant. And although it was a location many had never previously heard of, it was now a place most of the world could not stop talking about.
The accident resulted in a release of small but significant amounts of radioactive krypton and iodine. This accident was almost an incomprehensible ‘system accident’, or ‘black swan’ event, but across the US and even the world, the underlying fears of harnessing this awesome power for ‘good’ bubbled to the surface in an overwhelming wave of anti-nuclear, “I told you so” admonishment. Radioactive iodine is a known carcinogen and its main etiology is Thyroid cancer. Immediately following the incident, the Environmental Protection Agency and public health officials began to conduct environmental sampling and study the populations surrounding the plant for evidence of radiation poisoning. Even testing local deer population.
But despite claims of increased cases of cancer and other deleterious health effects, to this day there is majority scientific consensus that there was no statistical increase in cancer rates following the meltdown. Many anti-nuclear advocates point to the higher Incidence of cancer in the Three Mile Island region than in other locations in the US, however epidemiologists and researchers have shown that because of higher background radon levels there is a corresponding higher level of cancer Prevalence, or existing cases of cancer, in that area. The new cases of cancer are compared to an already high existing rate, or prevalence, of thyroid cancer in that region. They are no longer unique and their existence cannot be statistically linked in a causative manner to the accident itself. The new cases are statistically washed out, their importance diminished.
Now whether the accident resulted in an increased rate of cancer most likely will always be contested, especially by families who may have personally suffered following the release. But what is clear is that the meaning and importance of an incident is directly related to the prevalence of the same condition. This goes for the successes we often strive for. There may be a high incidence of excellence, but in a background environment of high excellence prevalence, those new incidences of success are not noteworthy, or rather above the norm.
We see this in classroom grade curves. A student scoring 90 percent on an exam (often considered excellent), may be subpar if the average is 95. But almost as important as understanding that, is understanding and exploiting the converse. A student scoring 70 may be considered excellent when the average is 60. Identifying when you are, or can, supercede the pool, no matter how mediocre, and thus creating an incident above the prevalence, is key to achieving success.
Song of the Day
So apparently this commercial has caused quite a stir on the web following its appearance on the Grammy's tonight. Not having anything to do with the message of the commercial, i want to feature it because i love covers of newer songs by legends. The song of the day is Coldplays' "The Scientist" performed by Willie Nelson.
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