File under Useless Information
"To be sure of hitting the target, shoot first and call whatever you hit the target."
There's nothing like changing your goals on the road to success.
Song of the Day
Speaking of the road to success, in honor of getting "somewhere", the song of the day is the Talking Heads' "Road to Nowhere".
Thursday, June 30, 2011
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
The Super Bass-O-Matic
File under Avoid the Machine
"Wow, that's terrific bass!"
A few months after college I was living on my own having had an averagely successful college career. I was in my own apartment, had a good job, and spare time and money (not much, but some). I was flipping channels late one night and came across the MegaMemory infomercials starring uber-salesman Kevin Trudeau. He was presenting a new system that would enhance your memory skills in everyday settings.
“Do you forget people’s names quickly?” he asked.
Yes, I do.
“Are you hindered in your work or studies by not remembering facts and tasks?”
I definitely am!
“Do you want to be more responsive and responsible?”
Well, of course I do! Who wouldn’t?!
The more he spoke, the more I thought he was talking only to me. I felt I forgot things all the time. If I only had a better memory I could have done better in school and earned a better GPA. I really felt that my lack of remembering things held me back, and made me a less confident person. The situations of failure he described I viewed as my own. It was like listening to a psychic who somehow knew my deepest secrets.
Then he talked about unlocking the photographic memory I already had in me. Wait, I didn’t need to learn anything?! I just needed to unlock it?! Using this power I already own will make me the thoughtful, smart, engaging person I always wanted to be? I could achieve my ideal state? I can do that I thought. It’s too easy! I need this memory system. In fact, how have I lived without it?
One phone call, 6-8 weeks, and $39.99 plus shipping and handling later the package arrived - 6 cassette tapes that were about to unlock my hidden potential. Soon I would be able to remember new acquaintances’ names, study for less time (despite having finished college two months previously), and remember my Aunts’ birthdays.
Of course I never made it through the program. I didn’t even make it through tape #3. I did the exercises on the first two tapes. I memorized the layout of the furniture in the living room. I used association to remember names. And then I gave up. The tapes sat on the shelf for years, until my desire to part with the tapes finally overcame my guilt for not becoming a memory master and I threw them out.
And I’m going to guess that you have been in this same situation before. Someone promised us an “easy” solution to a self-conscious problem (whether we actually knew it or not) and we failed in achieving that desired state. Whether it was clearing up acne, or getting out of debt, or losing weight, or being more productive, or getting ripped abs, or not dating losers, or living the life we always wanted, we are susceptible to the promises of the self-help machine with little chance for change or success. And this leads to guilt and shame and taxes our emotional effort.
More to follow...
Song of the Day
France annexed the South Pacific Islands of Tahiti on this day in 1880. In honor of French Polynesia and blatant colonialism the song of the day is Porno for Pyros' "Tahitian Moon".
"Wow, that's terrific bass!"
A few months after college I was living on my own having had an averagely successful college career. I was in my own apartment, had a good job, and spare time and money (not much, but some). I was flipping channels late one night and came across the MegaMemory infomercials starring uber-salesman Kevin Trudeau. He was presenting a new system that would enhance your memory skills in everyday settings.
“Do you forget people’s names quickly?” he asked.
Yes, I do.
“Are you hindered in your work or studies by not remembering facts and tasks?”
I definitely am!
“Do you want to be more responsive and responsible?”
Well, of course I do! Who wouldn’t?!
The more he spoke, the more I thought he was talking only to me. I felt I forgot things all the time. If I only had a better memory I could have done better in school and earned a better GPA. I really felt that my lack of remembering things held me back, and made me a less confident person. The situations of failure he described I viewed as my own. It was like listening to a psychic who somehow knew my deepest secrets.
Then he talked about unlocking the photographic memory I already had in me. Wait, I didn’t need to learn anything?! I just needed to unlock it?! Using this power I already own will make me the thoughtful, smart, engaging person I always wanted to be? I could achieve my ideal state? I can do that I thought. It’s too easy! I need this memory system. In fact, how have I lived without it?
One phone call, 6-8 weeks, and $39.99 plus shipping and handling later the package arrived - 6 cassette tapes that were about to unlock my hidden potential. Soon I would be able to remember new acquaintances’ names, study for less time (despite having finished college two months previously), and remember my Aunts’ birthdays.
Of course I never made it through the program. I didn’t even make it through tape #3. I did the exercises on the first two tapes. I memorized the layout of the furniture in the living room. I used association to remember names. And then I gave up. The tapes sat on the shelf for years, until my desire to part with the tapes finally overcame my guilt for not becoming a memory master and I threw them out.
And I’m going to guess that you have been in this same situation before. Someone promised us an “easy” solution to a self-conscious problem (whether we actually knew it or not) and we failed in achieving that desired state. Whether it was clearing up acne, or getting out of debt, or losing weight, or being more productive, or getting ripped abs, or not dating losers, or living the life we always wanted, we are susceptible to the promises of the self-help machine with little chance for change or success. And this leads to guilt and shame and taxes our emotional effort.
More to follow...
Song of the Day
France annexed the South Pacific Islands of Tahiti on this day in 1880. In honor of French Polynesia and blatant colonialism the song of the day is Porno for Pyros' "Tahitian Moon".
Tuesday, June 28, 2011
The Chux
File under Procrastinate
"The early bird may get the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese." – Business Coach Jon Hammond
In 1949, at the dawn of the Chemical Revolution, Johnson and Johnson introduced the Chux - the world’s first marketed disposable diaper. What? Never heard of them? Not surprising. They were relatively soon overshadowed and outsold by Proctor and Gamble’s Pampers. Were Pampers a better product? Maybe. Were they marketed better? Probably. Is Pampers a better name then Chux? Most certainly. Seriously, who was the marketing genius who came up with that?
In any case, Proctor and Gamble took an existing idea, its pros and cons, and improved upon it; and subsequently dominated the diaper market for many years. Why were they so successful? Why was being second to market better?
The idea that being second is better is explored in the book Fast Second: How Smart Companies Bypass Radical Innovation to Enter and Dominate New Markets by Constantinos Markides and Paul Geroski. They describe numerous instances where the second iteration was more successful, such as the Palm Pilot following an Apple hand held device that no one remembers. I think Apple got their revenge, however. The book gets lost in business strategy but the lesson applies to our everyday lives.
These successful companies were able to clearly see the situation, the pitfalls, the benefits, and then make informed actions in their favor. Procrastinating, waiting, and allowing the picture to evolve benefits us in our decisions too. Waiting until the second year to buy a new car model; giving the last presentation in class after others have gone before you; or waiting for other’s to figure out the new work reporting requirement are all ways we reduce our effort and build on the successes of others.
The Daily Antidote
Find opportunities to exploit other people’s hard work instead of expending your own.
Song of the Day
In honor of a band that neither invented Rock music nor Rap music, yet brought them together 25 years ago to create one of Rolling Stone Magazine’s top 500 songs of all time, the song of the day is Run D.M.C.’s “Walk This Way”.
"The early bird may get the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese." – Business Coach Jon Hammond
In 1949, at the dawn of the Chemical Revolution, Johnson and Johnson introduced the Chux - the world’s first marketed disposable diaper. What? Never heard of them? Not surprising. They were relatively soon overshadowed and outsold by Proctor and Gamble’s Pampers. Were Pampers a better product? Maybe. Were they marketed better? Probably. Is Pampers a better name then Chux? Most certainly. Seriously, who was the marketing genius who came up with that?
In any case, Proctor and Gamble took an existing idea, its pros and cons, and improved upon it; and subsequently dominated the diaper market for many years. Why were they so successful? Why was being second to market better?
The idea that being second is better is explored in the book Fast Second: How Smart Companies Bypass Radical Innovation to Enter and Dominate New Markets by Constantinos Markides and Paul Geroski. They describe numerous instances where the second iteration was more successful, such as the Palm Pilot following an Apple hand held device that no one remembers. I think Apple got their revenge, however. The book gets lost in business strategy but the lesson applies to our everyday lives.
These successful companies were able to clearly see the situation, the pitfalls, the benefits, and then make informed actions in their favor. Procrastinating, waiting, and allowing the picture to evolve benefits us in our decisions too. Waiting until the second year to buy a new car model; giving the last presentation in class after others have gone before you; or waiting for other’s to figure out the new work reporting requirement are all ways we reduce our effort and build on the successes of others.
The Daily Antidote
Find opportunities to exploit other people’s hard work instead of expending your own.
Song of the Day
In honor of a band that neither invented Rock music nor Rap music, yet brought them together 25 years ago to create one of Rolling Stone Magazine’s top 500 songs of all time, the song of the day is Run D.M.C.’s “Walk This Way”.
Monday, June 20, 2011
The Full House
File under Meet Yourself
After leaving the Army I was in a career Bermuda Triangle. I had taken a job doing water treatment sales and service, but I was lost. It was a good job with good benefits and commissions. But I wasn’t seeing any of those. See, I was average, and that’s being generous. I mean really generous. The higher commissions, the less I sold.
It’s counter-intuitive and I beat myself up about it for a while, but I slowly realized that no amount of money could entice me to care about water treatment. I had no desire to improve in that field. It wasn’t until a few months ago that I clearly understood why those incentives had no effect on me. That happened when I saw a video of researcher Dan Pink, a.k.a. Danny Tanner, giving a talk at the Technology, Entertainment, and Design (TED) Symposium in 2009.
Now this talk is 18 minutes long, but completely worth your time. In it, Pink provides evidence that incentives don’t work for solving complex problems. He shows that the key to success is the opportunity for autonomy, mastery, and purpose. No amount of incentives will entice you to act if it’s something you don’t care about.
When you can identify and remove the external ‘carrots’, you can identify what truly motivates you and direct your actions accordingly.
Song of the Day
I’ve got two of them today and both are in honor of the recent passing of two musical legends. In honor of the lead singer of the Coasters, Carl Gardner, and Clarence Clemmons of the E Street Band, the songs of the day are the Coasters’ Poison Ivy, and Bruce Springsteen’s Born to Run.
After leaving the Army I was in a career Bermuda Triangle. I had taken a job doing water treatment sales and service, but I was lost. It was a good job with good benefits and commissions. But I wasn’t seeing any of those. See, I was average, and that’s being generous. I mean really generous. The higher commissions, the less I sold.
It’s counter-intuitive and I beat myself up about it for a while, but I slowly realized that no amount of money could entice me to care about water treatment. I had no desire to improve in that field. It wasn’t until a few months ago that I clearly understood why those incentives had no effect on me. That happened when I saw a video of researcher Dan Pink, a.k.a. Danny Tanner, giving a talk at the Technology, Entertainment, and Design (TED) Symposium in 2009.
Now this talk is 18 minutes long, but completely worth your time. In it, Pink provides evidence that incentives don’t work for solving complex problems. He shows that the key to success is the opportunity for autonomy, mastery, and purpose. No amount of incentives will entice you to act if it’s something you don’t care about.
When you can identify and remove the external ‘carrots’, you can identify what truly motivates you and direct your actions accordingly.
Song of the Day
I’ve got two of them today and both are in honor of the recent passing of two musical legends. In honor of the lead singer of the Coasters, Carl Gardner, and Clarence Clemmons of the E Street Band, the songs of the day are the Coasters’ Poison Ivy, and Bruce Springsteen’s Born to Run.
Thursday, June 16, 2011
The Mid-Term
File under Procrastinate
I’m a bit of a procrastinator. Shocking to those who know me, I know. However, early in my grad school career I tried to change that fact. When assigned a mid-term exam, I decided to knock it out immediately, but Parkinson’s Law was in full effect. I had two weeks for the take home test and I started right away. I spent two weeks working on, taking a break from, and coming back to the test. In the end, on the last day I was still finalizing my thoughts and answers. I realized as I submitted the exam how inefficient I had been. I had read over and over my answers and thought over and over about how I could improve them; all without any appreciable improvement in my product.
I decided to change my approach for the final exam. This time I immediately opened up the exam, read the questions, and thought about how long it would take me to finish it. I decided on 5 hours. I then waited until the last day, 6 hours before it was due (everyone needs a little buffer!) and I started. Complete focus for that entire time. Clock ticking. Pressure’s on. At the 4 hour mark I realized I was reading over my answers trying to improve them and I decided to pack it in.
I realized that in a deliberate approach to procrastinate on my task until the last minute, I freed up available time for other things. The mid-term took me 2 weeks, the final took me 4 hours.
How often do we attack something immediately and spend more time on it than what is needed?
By the way, I got a better grade on the final.
The Daily Antidote
Identify the time needed to accomplish a task, and then regardless if you do it right away, or at the last minute, take no more than that amount of time.
Song of the Day
In honor of creating more time for yourself, the song of the day is Time Warp from the Rocky Horror Picture Show.
I’m a bit of a procrastinator. Shocking to those who know me, I know. However, early in my grad school career I tried to change that fact. When assigned a mid-term exam, I decided to knock it out immediately, but Parkinson’s Law was in full effect. I had two weeks for the take home test and I started right away. I spent two weeks working on, taking a break from, and coming back to the test. In the end, on the last day I was still finalizing my thoughts and answers. I realized as I submitted the exam how inefficient I had been. I had read over and over my answers and thought over and over about how I could improve them; all without any appreciable improvement in my product.
I decided to change my approach for the final exam. This time I immediately opened up the exam, read the questions, and thought about how long it would take me to finish it. I decided on 5 hours. I then waited until the last day, 6 hours before it was due (everyone needs a little buffer!) and I started. Complete focus for that entire time. Clock ticking. Pressure’s on. At the 4 hour mark I realized I was reading over my answers trying to improve them and I decided to pack it in.
I realized that in a deliberate approach to procrastinate on my task until the last minute, I freed up available time for other things. The mid-term took me 2 weeks, the final took me 4 hours.
How often do we attack something immediately and spend more time on it than what is needed?
By the way, I got a better grade on the final.
The Daily Antidote
Identify the time needed to accomplish a task, and then regardless if you do it right away, or at the last minute, take no more than that amount of time.
Song of the Day
In honor of creating more time for yourself, the song of the day is Time Warp from the Rocky Horror Picture Show.
Sunday, June 12, 2011
The Law
File under Procrastinate
In 1955, a British Military officer and Naval Historian at the University of Malaya in colonial Singapore wrote an article that appeared in The Economist. The article, which was later developed into a book, detailed a phenomenon that despite the reduction in colonial governments to administer, the number of government staff employed for that administration continued to increase.
That officer was Cyril Northcote Parkinson, and the phenomenon became Parkinson’s Law.
In his book he attributed the fact that the bureaucracy grew 5-7% per year “irrespective of any variation in the amount of work (if any) to be done,” to two factors:
1) An official wants to multiply subordinates, not rivals
2) Officials make work for each other
Although we have probably all seen this happen in some capacity, what is more interesting to our daily lives is the corollary to Parkinson’s Law that states:
The amount of time it takes to perform a task is equivalent to the time available to do the task.
And next post I’ll talk more about that and about why procrastination is actually a good thing.
Song of the Day
I saw Subaru Outback commercial today and the song in the ad caught my attention because it sounded like it was sung by the singer/actress Zooey Deschanel. I was going to feature a cover song she sung as a part of her two-person band She and Him. It turns out the commercial song was sung by Miss Erika Davies who is pretty amazing in her own right. I’ll try to add her in one of these days, but today I wanted to feature the She and Him cover song and I was all set to do it until my father-in-law mentioned he rarely knew the groups I posted. So today I’ll throw one his way and feature the original artist of this song. Long explanation, I know. In honor of WLA, the song of the day is Smokey Robinson and the Miracles’ “You really got a hold on me”.
I also encourage you to check out the She and Him version
In 1955, a British Military officer and Naval Historian at the University of Malaya in colonial Singapore wrote an article that appeared in The Economist. The article, which was later developed into a book, detailed a phenomenon that despite the reduction in colonial governments to administer, the number of government staff employed for that administration continued to increase.
That officer was Cyril Northcote Parkinson, and the phenomenon became Parkinson’s Law.
In his book he attributed the fact that the bureaucracy grew 5-7% per year “irrespective of any variation in the amount of work (if any) to be done,” to two factors:
1) An official wants to multiply subordinates, not rivals
2) Officials make work for each other
Although we have probably all seen this happen in some capacity, what is more interesting to our daily lives is the corollary to Parkinson’s Law that states:
The amount of time it takes to perform a task is equivalent to the time available to do the task.
And next post I’ll talk more about that and about why procrastination is actually a good thing.
Song of the Day
I saw Subaru Outback commercial today and the song in the ad caught my attention because it sounded like it was sung by the singer/actress Zooey Deschanel. I was going to feature a cover song she sung as a part of her two-person band She and Him. It turns out the commercial song was sung by Miss Erika Davies who is pretty amazing in her own right. I’ll try to add her in one of these days, but today I wanted to feature the She and Him cover song and I was all set to do it until my father-in-law mentioned he rarely knew the groups I posted. So today I’ll throw one his way and feature the original artist of this song. Long explanation, I know. In honor of WLA, the song of the day is Smokey Robinson and the Miracles’ “You really got a hold on me”.
I also encourage you to check out the She and Him version
Saturday, June 11, 2011
The Quotable Antidote 6.11.2011
"Saying 'I'm sorry' and saying 'I apologize' is saying the same thing...unless you're at a funeral."
- Comedian Demetri Martin
Song of the Day
In honor of semantics, the song of the day is Digable Planets' "Where I'm from". Have a good weekend!
- Comedian Demetri Martin
Song of the Day
In honor of semantics, the song of the day is Digable Planets' "Where I'm from". Have a good weekend!
Thursday, June 9, 2011
The Weekly Theory 6.9.2011
In honor of seeing something very similar to this picture this week:
I present the weekly theory:
I Have a Theory...
...that tucking in an Aloha shirt defeats the purpose of an Aloha shirt.
Sorry Magnum, I'm just sayin'.
Song of the Day
One of my favorite Hawaiian bands is a group called Pure Heart. They are no longer together but when they were they featured the most ridiculous ukulele player i've ever heard. His name is Jake Shimabukuro and i encourage you to look this guy up. He's insane. I was searching for one of their songs in particluar but couldn't find them actually playing it, just a bunch of covers. I wasn't going to feature the song until I came across this cover from a guy who played all three string peices separately and then spliced the video together to make a seamless song. In honor of the 808 state and Aloha shirts everywhere, the song of the day is Bodysurfing, originally by Herb Ohta, arranged by Pure Heart, and played by some random kid in his room. Enjoy.
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I Have a Theory...
...that tucking in an Aloha shirt defeats the purpose of an Aloha shirt.
Sorry Magnum, I'm just sayin'.
Song of the Day
One of my favorite Hawaiian bands is a group called Pure Heart. They are no longer together but when they were they featured the most ridiculous ukulele player i've ever heard. His name is Jake Shimabukuro and i encourage you to look this guy up. He's insane. I was searching for one of their songs in particluar but couldn't find them actually playing it, just a bunch of covers. I wasn't going to feature the song until I came across this cover from a guy who played all three string peices separately and then spliced the video together to make a seamless song. In honor of the 808 state and Aloha shirts everywhere, the song of the day is Bodysurfing, originally by Herb Ohta, arranged by Pure Heart, and played by some random kid in his room. Enjoy.
Wednesday, June 8, 2011
The n of 1
File under Cage the Rage
Several years ago I heard a song on the radio by a band called Len. The song was “Steal my Sunshine.” I was instantly amazed by the song and literally rushed out that afternoon to go buy the CD, thinking these guys were geniuses and I couldn’t wait to hear the rest of their masterpiece. That album was a ‘piece’ alright. “Steal my Sunshine” was really the only listenable song on the entire album, and that purchase was, quite possibly, the worst $13.99 I’ve ever spent. I spent 14 bucks for one song.
I felt foolish for succumbing to the n of 1.
In statistical terms, n is the size of the sample set. For example if you flip a coin 5 times, n = 5. As I mentioned in the last post, the larger the sample set, the better off you are in being able to make decisions.
In the case of that album, if I had heard one more song, I would have pocketed the money for something better. To be honest, it wasn’t the first or the last time I made that mistake, it was just the worst.
The problem is we do that for other as well things. We rely on one recommendation, we see one cause, we see one outcome, or we have one experience. Those things influence who we do or don’t date, what purchases we make, what school we go to or job we take, or our opinions of others. And the worst part is when we berate ourselves when our ‘n of 1’-decisions become mistakes.
The Daily Antidote
Don’t base decisions or opinions on an n of 1
The Song of the Day
Although it would make sense to feature “Steal my Sunshine” here, I can’t. It’s actually a pretty awful song. I can’t do that to you or me. However, in honor of the n of 1, the song of the day is my favorite song by a one-hit wonder, Deee-Lite’s Groove is in the Heart.
Several years ago I heard a song on the radio by a band called Len. The song was “Steal my Sunshine.” I was instantly amazed by the song and literally rushed out that afternoon to go buy the CD, thinking these guys were geniuses and I couldn’t wait to hear the rest of their masterpiece. That album was a ‘piece’ alright. “Steal my Sunshine” was really the only listenable song on the entire album, and that purchase was, quite possibly, the worst $13.99 I’ve ever spent. I spent 14 bucks for one song.
I felt foolish for succumbing to the n of 1.
In statistical terms, n is the size of the sample set. For example if you flip a coin 5 times, n = 5. As I mentioned in the last post, the larger the sample set, the better off you are in being able to make decisions.
In the case of that album, if I had heard one more song, I would have pocketed the money for something better. To be honest, it wasn’t the first or the last time I made that mistake, it was just the worst.
The problem is we do that for other as well things. We rely on one recommendation, we see one cause, we see one outcome, or we have one experience. Those things influence who we do or don’t date, what purchases we make, what school we go to or job we take, or our opinions of others. And the worst part is when we berate ourselves when our ‘n of 1’-decisions become mistakes.
The Daily Antidote
Don’t base decisions or opinions on an n of 1
The Song of the Day
Although it would make sense to feature “Steal my Sunshine” here, I can’t. It’s actually a pretty awful song. I can’t do that to you or me. However, in honor of the n of 1, the song of the day is my favorite song by a one-hit wonder, Deee-Lite’s Groove is in the Heart.
Friday, June 3, 2011
The Weekly Theory 6.3.2011
File under Useless Information
Today was an amazing day here in Maryland - high of 78 degrees and not a cloud in the sky. Plus it was Friday! But driving home from work today i came across another theory.
I Have a Theory...
...that people become bad drivers in both really bad weather AND in really nice weather.
I can't explain why. It's not logical. Maybe they're distracted by the niceness, maybe the good feelings override all common sense, or maybe they can't concentrate with the windows down and the music up. In any case, it's true, i swear.
This actually reminds me of a good top ten list:
Top Ten "Driving with the Windows Down" songs:
10. "Let's go crazy" - Prince
9. "Where the streets have no name" - U2
8. "Windfall" - Son Volt
7. "Swingtown" - Steve Miller Band
6. "Who wouldn't want to be me" - Keith Urban
5. "Just what I needed" - Cars
4. "Body Count" - Ice-T
3. "Boys of summer" - Don Henley
2. "Born to run" - Bruce Springsteen
1. "More than a Feeling" - Boston
Song of the Day
In honor of bad drivers everywhere, the song of the day is of course Boston's "More than a Feeling".
Today was an amazing day here in Maryland - high of 78 degrees and not a cloud in the sky. Plus it was Friday! But driving home from work today i came across another theory.
I Have a Theory...
...that people become bad drivers in both really bad weather AND in really nice weather.
I can't explain why. It's not logical. Maybe they're distracted by the niceness, maybe the good feelings override all common sense, or maybe they can't concentrate with the windows down and the music up. In any case, it's true, i swear.
This actually reminds me of a good top ten list:
Top Ten "Driving with the Windows Down" songs:
10. "Let's go crazy" - Prince
9. "Where the streets have no name" - U2
8. "Windfall" - Son Volt
7. "Swingtown" - Steve Miller Band
6. "Who wouldn't want to be me" - Keith Urban
5. "Just what I needed" - Cars
4. "Body Count" - Ice-T
3. "Boys of summer" - Don Henley
2. "Born to run" - Bruce Springsteen
1. "More than a Feeling" - Boston
Song of the Day
In honor of bad drivers everywhere, the song of the day is of course Boston's "More than a Feeling".
Thursday, June 2, 2011
The Book Review
File under Understanding the Problem
Last post I gave a quote from a favorite book of mine – The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives by Leonard Mlodinow.
Mlodinow, a professor of Randomness (that’s right…it’s actually a specialty) at Caltech, eloquently describes how random events pervade our lives and more importantly how we interpret random events as having statistical significance and thus importance.
He provides evidence that historic sporting achievements such as Roger Maris’ home run record, and Joe Dimaggio’s hit streak were entirely expected, and if they didn’t do it, someone else would have. He also shows that top Wall Street fund managers have no more expertise than Atlantic City craps players; that the game show “Let’s Make a Deal” is an intellectual puzzle; and that OJ Simpson’s defense attorney’s used statistical misdirection to achieve acquittal.
As I sit here and watch game 2 of the NBA Finals between the Dallas Mavericks and the Miami Heat (Go Mavs), I’m reminded of a paragraph from Mlodinow’s Wall Street Journal Column:
“In sports, the championship contenders are usually pretty evenly matched. But in baseball, even if one assumes that the better team has a lopsided 55/45 edge over the inferior one, the lesser team will win the seven-game World Series 40% of the time. That might seem counterintuitive, but you can look at it as follows. If you play a best-of-one game series, then, by our assumption, the lesser team will win 45% of the time. Playing a longer series will cut down that probability. The problem is that playing a seven-game series only cuts it down to 40%, which isn’t cutting it down by much. What if you demand that the lesser team win no more than 5% of the time—a constraint called statistical significance? The World Series would have to be the best of 269 games, and probably draw an audience the size of that for Olympic curling. Swap baseball for marketing, and you find a mistake often made by marketing departments: assuming that the results of small focus groups reflect a trend in the general population.”
In other words, the sample size has to be so large as to make any inference on significance relevant. How often do we tie importance or make decisions based on little to no information or understanding of a situation?
A lot, and we’ll talk about that next.
Song of the Day
I heard this song for the first time yesterday and I think I have a new favorite band. So sit back, throw on your over-the-ear headphones, and watch a sunset. In honor of the Mavs’ improbable come-from-behind win in game 2, the song of the day is Hudson Bell’s Slow Burn.
Last post I gave a quote from a favorite book of mine – The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives by Leonard Mlodinow.
Mlodinow, a professor of Randomness (that’s right…it’s actually a specialty) at Caltech, eloquently describes how random events pervade our lives and more importantly how we interpret random events as having statistical significance and thus importance.
As I sit here and watch game 2 of the NBA Finals between the Dallas Mavericks and the Miami Heat (Go Mavs), I’m reminded of a paragraph from Mlodinow’s Wall Street Journal Column:
“In sports, the championship contenders are usually pretty evenly matched. But in baseball, even if one assumes that the better team has a lopsided 55/45 edge over the inferior one, the lesser team will win the seven-game World Series 40% of the time. That might seem counterintuitive, but you can look at it as follows. If you play a best-of-one game series, then, by our assumption, the lesser team will win 45% of the time. Playing a longer series will cut down that probability. The problem is that playing a seven-game series only cuts it down to 40%, which isn’t cutting it down by much. What if you demand that the lesser team win no more than 5% of the time—a constraint called statistical significance? The World Series would have to be the best of 269 games, and probably draw an audience the size of that for Olympic curling. Swap baseball for marketing, and you find a mistake often made by marketing departments: assuming that the results of small focus groups reflect a trend in the general population.”
In other words, the sample size has to be so large as to make any inference on significance relevant. How often do we tie importance or make decisions based on little to no information or understanding of a situation?
A lot, and we’ll talk about that next.
Song of the Day
I heard this song for the first time yesterday and I think I have a new favorite band. So sit back, throw on your over-the-ear headphones, and watch a sunset. In honor of the Mavs’ improbable come-from-behind win in game 2, the song of the day is Hudson Bell’s Slow Burn.
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